More than 5 agreements to supply gas to Turkey will expire by 2021
The negotiating power of long-term natural gas contracts incoming to Turkey has shifted from the hands of foreign suppliers to Ankara, after the latter investigated two discoveries of gas in the waters of the Black Sea.
The disclosures are expected to open the door wide to possibilities for other discoveries of traditional energy sources in the Black Sea or the Mediterranean, at a time when the latter has become a hot arena for exploration by coastal countries.
On 17 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of an additional 85 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the Black Sea, bringing the total gas reserves discovered in the “Tuna-1 / Sakarya field” to 405 billion cubic meters.
“As far as I know, Turkish gas production will annually reach 6 billion cubic meters, and this production will have an impact on the negotiations on long-term contracts with Gazprom and others,” Stern said in an interview.
He pointed out that no such huge quantities had been discovered in Turkey or in the Black Sea in general, yet, and he pointed to the possibility of other new discoveries.
The value of the gas reserves discovered in the Sakarya field is equivalent to about 85 to 90 billion Turkish liras (10.7 – 11.3 billion dollars), and will allow Turkey to meet its domestic needs of natural gas locally for a period of 25 years, and to meet all of its gas needs for a period of 8 years.
Turkey consumes about 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.
Turkish expectations indicate the possibility of starting the extraction of natural gas by 2023, and according to the international expert, “this is possible, but according to my information, Turkish companies intend to do this without receiving any foreign aid.”
Stern added, “So it will take a longer time, as this matter concerns the depth of the region .. Work has been done with the Italian company Eni to develop the Zohr gas field in Egypt .. so it was completed in a quick time without any financial or technical problems.”
For his part, “Robin Mills,” CEO of “Qamar Energy,” energy consultancy based in Dubai, said that the work in the field will take a few years.
Mills added, “During this period, Turkey will need to purchase all of its energy needs from abroad … However, this discovery will be a trump card and an advantage for Turkey in its discussions of long-term contracts.”
Mills stressed the possibility of other new discoveries in the Black Sea .. “There may be new discoveries in this region due to the presence of an area rich in gas extending from the open marine areas of Romania and Bulgaria to the Turkish territorial waters.”
He added, “Perhaps the Turkish Petroleum Corporation does not have the experience in carrying out natural gas-related work in deep water areas … and the infrastructure in the Black Sea is less, so the task will be more difficult from the logistical point of view.”
Part of the Turkish long-term purchase contracts will expire by 2021; New purchase contracts will be agreed upon, totaling 11.6 billion cubic meters.
Larger quantities of these are expected to be contracted by 2026.
The gas field in Sakarya in the Black Sea and other potential discoveries will work to strengthen and enhance the position of Turkish companies in the negotiations that will take place in the coming years, in terms of price and contract terms.
The LNG agreement between Boutash and Qatar, worth 2.1 billion cubic meters, expired last month.
By 2021, the gas agreement by the company in the amount of 4 billion cubic meters from the Russian company Gazprom across the Balkans will end, and the agreement to buy liquefied natural gas from Nigeria by 1.3 billion cubic meters will end in the same year.
On the private sector level, it is expected that the gas agreement between Eurasia and the Bosphorus gas companies with Russia will end in 2021, with an estimated total of 1.5 billion cubic meters, by 750 million cubic meters for each company.
The agreements of Enerco Energy will end by 2.5 billion cubic meters, and Shell Energy by 250 million cubic meters.
Thus, further negotiations will be held in 2021 regarding natural gas purchase agreements with a total value of 11.6 billion cubic meters