Who Wins the Presidency? … Trump’s tumultuous rallies or Biden’s lull (report)

  • The elections will start on November 3 between the Republican and Democratic candidates and the extent of their benefit from the lessons of the 2016 race – Will funding and electoral momentum settle the end of the US election race?
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Ahead of the 2016 US presidential election, opinion polls showed Donald Trump, the current US president, the Republican nominee at the time, retreating from his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

At the time, Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster, described Trump’s campaign as a “joke,” noting that some states did not even have a campaign headquarters.

Luntz said at the time that Trump spent more on “hats” than on survey research and voter understanding.

But Trump had an unclassified weapon, as his raucous campaign rallies attracted wide coverage on television networks, and the audience became addicted to watching them, whether in terror or jubilation.

Indeed, he challenged poll results and won the presidency at the time, and similar to the 2016 elections, opinion polls have shown again now that Trump has lost to his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, but there are big differences this time.


Better performance on the ground

The Trump campaign is more “on the ground” active in the United States now, and, ironically, the Democrats are much less active.

Democrats are taking the Corona virus precautions much more seriously than Republicans. In the state of “Wisconsin”, almost all of their headquarters have been closed since last March, except for the largest in the city of “Milwaukee”, with mandatory wearing of masks inside it.

In turn, Christine Seneke, head of the Democratic Party headquarters in “Milwaukee”, expressed her concern about not being able to knock on city doors to mobilize votes.

Seneke indicated that as one of the old politicians she likes to talk face to face to convince voters, but her party realizes that they are in a whole new world now.

On the other hand, the Republican headquarters in “Wisconsin” were working in full swing, as volunteers and employees knocked on doors to collect votes, without wearing masks


Funding Crisis:

On the other hand, Republicans are dragging their feet in the funding race during the campaign’s most crucial time.

The New York Times reported that the Trump campaign has cut millions of dollars from planned TV ads and raised donations instead.

Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign financing last October was nearly three times the Trump campaign fund, about $ 177 million, compared to $ 63.1 million for Trump.

Brad Parscal, a former Trump campaign manager, has been blamed for agreeing to heavy advertising spending early in the campaign, before the coronavirus pandemic spreads in the country, which has changed the political landscape.

Some also blamed Parscal for his attack on Biden as being too old, which, according to some polls, angered the elderly.

The Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign last week announced a $ 25 million advertising campaign targeting senior Americans.

As for the supporters who use the Trump campaign app with their phones, she sends them numerous text messages every day urging them to donate increasingly to her.

However, Trump’s current campaign financing is on par with Hillary’s funding at this point in 2016, but his campaign advisers assumed they would have a much larger fiscal reserve by last October, according to the “New York Times”.

Currently, Biden has used a mixture of social distancing, masks, and virtual campaigns, such as the participation of former President Barack Obama in campaign events, during which he launched severe attacks on Trump.

Biden also sticks to his strongest line of attack, which is that the president has failed to respond to the pandemic, and his campaign attracts a mix of small donors fueled by their disgust with Trump and wealthy donors, some of whom donate $ 100,000.


*فجوة تقنية:

أفادت منصة “Crowd Tangle” للبيانات المملوكة لشركة “فيسبوك”، أن صفحة ترامب الرسمية على “فيسبوك” نالت 130 مليون تعليق وردود فعل ومشاركة في الشهر الماضي، مقارنة بـ 18 مليون فقط لصفحة بايدن الرسمية.

كما أشارت الشركات التي تتعقب اتجاهات التكنولوجيا أن ترامب يتفوق كثيرًا على بايدن في منصتي “إنستجرام” و”يتوتيوب” أيضًا.

ويواصل ترامب أداءه الجيد على المنصات الإلكترونية على الرغم من العديد من منشوراته المريبة حول فيروس كورونا التي تم الإبلاغ عنها أو إزالتها بسبب معلومات خاطئة أو مضللة.

وكان أفضل أسبوع لترامب على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي، هو الأسبوع الذي أصيب خلاله بكورونا ونقل للمستشفى، عندما تدفقت التمنيات له بالشفاء.

لكن موقع “أكسيوس” الإخباري أفاد بأن أداء بايدن كان أفضل في الأيام الأخيرة عندما يتعلق الأمر بإعادة التغريدات والردود على منشوراته، استنادا لمعلومات من شركة التحليلات الإعلامية “كونفيفا”.

كما أشارت التقييمات لتفوق مشاهدات اللقاء المتلفز لبايدن في قاعة البلدية، الذي بث في نفس وقت عرض لقاء ترامب بقاعة البلدية، في وقت سابق من أكتوبر/تشرين الأول المنصرم.

وأفادت تقييمات مركز “Nielson TV” للأبحاث الإعلامية بأن لقاء بايدن حصد 14.1 مليون مشاهدة مقابل 13.5 مليون مشاهدة لترامب.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك، لم تعد تجمعات ترامب تحصل على وقت بث غير محدود في شبكات التلفزيون هذا العام، كما جرى في الانتخابات السابقة.

Technical gap:

The Facebook-owned data platform Crowd Tangle reported that Trump’s official Facebook page received 130 million comments, reactions and shares last month, compared to only 18 million for Biden’s official page.

And companies tracking technology trends have indicated that Trump is way ahead of Biden on Instagram and YouTube as well.

Trump continues to do well on online platforms despite his many dubious posts about Coronavirus that have been reported or removed due to false or misleading information.

And Trump’s best week on social media was the week during which he contracted Corona and was taken to hospital, when wishes poured in for him to recover.

But the “Axios” news site reported that Biden has performed better in recent days when it comes to re-tweets and responses to his posts, based on information from the media analytics firm Confiva.

The ratings also indicated that the views of Biden’s televised meeting in City Hall, which was broadcast at the same time as the Trump meeting in City Hall, earlier this October, were higher.

According to ratings by the Nielson TV Center for Media Research, the Biden meeting garnered 14.1 million views compared to 13.5 million views of Trump.

Additionally, Trump rallies no longer get unlimited broadcast time on television networks this year, as they did in the previous elections.


Wrong issues and wrong messages to the Trump campaign

Luntz, the Republican pollster, who described Trump’s campaign as a “joke” four years ago, has once again criticized his campaign but for a different reason this time.

“(The Trump campaign this year) is the worst I have seen in my life, they are dealing with the wrong issues and sending the wrong message,” Luntz told Global Council, a strategic consultancy headed by Peter Mandelson.

Luntz noted that Trump does not focus on issues that Americans care about, and instead wastes his time attacking Biden’s son Hunter and his business dealings.

He added that Trump is lagging in poll results, from his handling of the Coronavirus to economic issues.

Although Trump has promoted himself as a candidate for “law and order,” especially after the protests, a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College this month showed that he fell ahead of Biden by a margin of 50 to 44 percent when voters were asked which candidate would better maintain law and order.

In turn, said Barrow Shah, associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: “An art scheme for the overlap between supporters of Trump and Biden supporters does not exist.”

An art diagram used to illustrate the mathematical or logical relationships of a group of objects or concepts.

He added, “You are either with or against Trump,” noting that at this late stage of the race, neither of the two campaigns has focused too much on trying to win new supporters, as it is about each side trying to bring its supporters to the ballot box.

** “Ask Hillary”

In the final days of the 2016 campaign, Hillary barely campaigned in Michigan and never campaigned in Wisconsin, with polls in both states indicating she would win.

But Trump, who has more election events in both states, won “Wisconsin” by one percentage point from the vote, and “Michigan” by 0.3 percentage points.

This year, Trump is carrying out the same campaign. In southeast Wisconsin, 10 days before the election, thousands of supporters waited for hours without masks to participate in Trump’s rally.

However, the average polls in “Wisconsin” show Biden a lead over Trump by 5 to 10 percentage points, and in Michigan polls show Biden a lead by about 8 percentage points.

While Ken Brown, of the Republican Party in Racine County, southeast Wisconsin, said that many of Trump’s supporters and many Republicans do not vote in these polls.

While there is much talk of “shy” Trump supporters who will not approve of pollsters in favor of Trump for fear of embarrassment, ambiguity surrounds the size of the role that “shy” supporters will play in the election.

When asked about Biden’s progress in the polls, Brown replies optimistically: “Ask Hillary Clinton how it worked for her.”

On August 21, Democratic Senator Joe Biden announced his acceptance of his party’s nomination to run for the presidential elections, in competition for the incumbent Republican President Donald Trump, who announced that he will run for the elections on the 27th of the same month.

On Tuesday, 3 November, the United States is expected to witness the 50th presidential elections in the country’s history.

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